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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.